Interesting conversation I had today with some friends. They had just completed their fantasy draft and said that Roy Oswalt had gone undrafted. This prompted me to wonder: What is Roy Oswalt’s fantasy value after he has had one bad season? Undoubtedly he has been picked up in many leagues (he is owned in 100% of ESPN leagues and has an ADP of 154.67) and he is still considered a front end starter who could win 20 games and it wasn’t until last year that he did not have double digit wins. Since 2001, he has averaged 15 wins a season, has never dipped below .500 and, with the exception of last season, he has pitched at least 200 innings, while pitching 181.1 last year.
There is some reason for concern, however. Since 2004, his K/9 has been under 7.0 (with the expectation of 2008 when it was 7.1) and his WHIP has been slightly higher than it has been in the past. Also, since 2005, his ERA has been steadily increasing (topping out with a less than spectacular 4.16 ERA last year) and his K rate has also been on the decline. While these are legitimate concerns, it should not deter anyone from taking him in the middle rounds.
The one thing about Oswalt is that you know what you are going to get. He has been extremely consistent and, while he isn’t the type of guy you want to headline your fantasy rotation, he is a great second or third starter. He is often forgotten about in many leagues and, if he works through his injuries (the latest news), then he will have another solid year.