Winning and the 2013 Houston Astros: A Gambler’s Dilemma


Every year Vegas (and make-the-biggest-little-mistake-of-your-life Reno) release lines for win totals for MLB teams.  Usually they are not particularly noteworthy, especially to non-gamblers.  However, this year the Astros have caught my eye by the sheer sadness of their awful awfulness.  Their odds to win the World Series according to Vegas (via VegasInsider, a simple Google search will find you this stuff) is currently set at 100:1.  To be clear the Chicago Cubs, who are almost certainly not going to win it all, have odds of 40:1.  Furthermore, their over/under for wins in 2013 is set at 59.5.  That’s very bad.  Very bad.  I have also heard talk they were considering placing the line lower, in the 53-win range.  And as Jonathan Bernhardt over at Sports on Earth puts it (in this really great article, which I recommend reading):

“the Astros won 55 games last year, just traded their best hitter by a wide and clear margin to Oakland, and are reportedly shopping Bud Norris around as we speak. They also moved from the NL Central to the AL West, and while I’m no big believer in the Mariners, even they’re well-enough equipped to steal Houston’s lunch money, to say nothing of the Rangers, Angels, and Athletics.”
 

I could not have put it better myself (hence the big ‘ol quote).  He briefly touches on the question I immediately thought of when I found out the Vegas odds – do any of us really think the 2013 Astros are bad enough to lose THAT many games?  Would someone really bet that under at 52.5?  Well, I’ve decided to ask our 13 readers – just how bad do YOU think the Astros are going to be in 2013?

(Keep in mind the all-time record for futility is the 1962 Mets, who went 40-120, and the 2003 Tigers who sadly played all 162 and went 43-119)

Craig Biggio ain’t walkin’ through that door, folks.

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Filed under Baseball, MLB, poll

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